Reporter’s Notebook: Why foreign policy might matter

Which of these things is not like the others? The economy. The border. Abortion. Foreign policy. 

The first three are issues many voters consistently tell pollsters are the subjects most important to them in 2024. Foreign policy? Dwarfed by the others. In fact, recent Fox polling shows that foreign policy decisions were the most important subjects to only 3% of registered voters surveyed in Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Foreign policy only climbs to 4% when Fox asked the question nationally.

So why care about foreign policy in a race like the one between Vice President Harris and former President Trump? The importance of foreign policy as a determining factor in the race for the presidency rises and falls. Vietnam wore on the public consciousness in the late 1960s. It drove former President Lyndon Johnson away from seeking re-election in 1968. The Iranian hostage crisis certainly didn’t help former President Carter as he stumbled in 1980. It’s believed that former President Reagan scored a boost from improving America’s image on the global stage. Staring down the Soviets certainly enabled Reagan to cruise to victory in 1984.

Former President George H.W. Bush seemingly received no benefit for the 1991 Gulf War nor the fall of the Eastern Bloc in the late ‘80s and early ’90s. This was ironic. The president earned a staggering 91% approval rating just after the Gulf War. Yet he lost to former President Clinton less than two years later. The events of 9/11 lifted the fate of former President George W. Bush in 2001. Bush won re-election in 2004. But casualties from the war in Iraq cost him support that fall. 

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So, should we focus on foreign policy as a crucial issue in 2024? Hard to say. But in a tight race, anything might be decisive. Especially in battleground states where the race is a statistical dead heat.

“Pocketbook issues are always the most important issues for most people,” said Rep. Larry Bucshon, R-Ind. But Bucshon offered a caveat.

“(Foreign policy) could be in the national security space part of the election narrative because the vice president was obviously part of this decision-making progress,” the Indiana Republican said.

That is precisely what Republicans hope to highlight as Congress returns to session. Biden is out the door. Harris is now the Democratic nominee. And Republicans hope to tell the story of the vice president and foreign policy.

War in the Middle East. Executions of Israeli hostages. Even the controversy involving Trump honoring service members killed in Afghanistan three years ago. Curiously, the incident and questions surrounding how Trump and his team conducted themselves at Arlington National Cemetery may have actually retrained focus on why they were there in the first place: the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan under the watch of the president and vice president.

A mother of one of the 13 U.S. service members killed in the Abbey Gate attack at the Kabul airport railed against the administration.

“We’ve been disrespected so much in the last three years,” Kelly Barnett told Fox. She’s a Gold Star mother who lost her son, Taylor Hoover, in the terrorist attack. “No response from them. No ‘I’m sorry.’”

Republicans see this as connective tissue to Harris.

“I think it’s open to criticism because the vice president was intimately involved in that discussion (to withdraw from Afghanistan),” said Bucshon.

Harris even said as much during an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash in 2021 after the withdrawal.

“(President Biden) just made a really big decision. Afghanistan,” said Bash. “Were you the last person in the room?”

President Biden holds hands with Vice President Kamala Harris during a ceremony honoring the Golden State Warriors Jan. 17, 2023, in Washington, D.C. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

“Yes,” replied Harris.

“And you feel comfortable?” countered Bash.

“I do,” answered Harris.

On NBC, Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., noted that former President Trump “was never able” to get out of Afghanistan despite wanting to do so.

“I give President Biden and Vice President Harris credit for finally ending a war after 20 years,” said Khanna.

The California Democrat conceded the administration bungled the withdrawal. But Khanna believes Harris and the president “deserve credit” for actually extracting the U.S. from the protracted conflict. In addition, some Republicans point to the Israel/Hamas war as a flashpoint for the administration.

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“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have tried to hamstring Israel every step of the way here,” Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., said on Fox.

On Fox Business, Rep. Pat Fallon, R-Texas, argued that the only “two-state solution” Harris and vice presidential nominee and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz care about is winning “Pennsylvania and Michigan.”

But when it comes to the Middle East, the administration contends it’s clear who is to blame — despite the Mideast crisis unfolding on its watch.

“Hamas is responsible for their deaths. And as the president said, most leaders pay for their crimes,” said White House national security spokesman John Kirby.

The campaign trail now moves from battleground states like Nevada and North Carolina to Capitol Hill as Congress returns to session. Expect congressional Republicans to curate a narrative about the Biden administration’s foreign policy — and latch that to Harris.

The House is slated to vote on a number of measures in the coming days pertaining to China. There may even be legislation tied to Israel and the Mideast War. The House Foreign Affairs Committee is releasing an exhaustive report about the Afghanistan withdrawal imminently. The committee also issued a subpoena to Secretary of State Antony Blinken to testify about the withdrawal Sept. 19.

President Biden speaks to reporters outside St. Edmond’s Roman Catholic Church in Rehoboth Beach, Del., after attending a mass Aug. 31, 2024. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

The State Department contends Blinken isn’t available then. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller called the subpoena “unnecessary,” arguing Blinken worked with the committee in good faith. But Foreign Affairs Committee spokeswoman Leslie Shedd said Blinken knew the committee wanted his testimony since late May.

“The chairman offered the secretary any session day in the month of September to come in, and he refused. Instead, he vaguely suggested November or December — when it is far too late for Congress to take legislative action to fix the problems at the State Department that led to the withdrawal,” Shedd said.

Regardless, the coming days will present lots of fodder about what went wrong in Afghanistan three years ago. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., will present the families of the 13 service members killed in Afghanistan with the Congressional Gold Medal in a ceremony Tuesday.

George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush and Jeb Bush stand together for a photo. (Getty Images)

So, do the foreign policy arguments stick to Harris? Unclear. However, you’ll notice that Republicans recently began to invoke the “Biden-Harris administration.” That’s a concerted effort to pivot from Biden and Velcro issues to the vice president — once she became the nominee.

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But will foreign policy make a difference? It can. But we won’t know until the vote is in. As observed earlier, George W. Bush won re-election over former Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in 2004. But there were “micro” costs to Bush’s campaign over the Iraq war in particular regions and precincts.

And in a close election, that’s why foreign policy might matter in 2024.