Harris failing to cobble together Biden’s winning 2020 coalition: analysis
Vice President Kamala Harris is running behind President Biden’s 2020 numbers among several demographic groups, a gap that could loom large in what increasingly appears to be a razor’s-edge election.
“Harris is significantly underperforming Biden, according to most polls, with Black voters, Hispanic voters, working class voters, and young voters,” Democratic strategist Julian Epstein told Fox News Digital.
The comments come as an analysis of polling data released by the Wall Street Journal this week showed Harris still struggling with key demographics that have been critical to Democratic success in national elections. Although the vice president has made up ground on Biden’s numbers when he decided to drop out of the race, she has still failed to meet the president’s 2020 performance.
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Vice President Kamala Harris. (Photo by Kenny Holston-Pool/Getty Images)
One such group Harris is struggling with is Black voters, with the vice president running 10 points behind the numbers put up by Biden in 2020. She is also behind Biden’s mark with Latino voters (6 points), voters under the age of 30 (12 points), male voters (4 points) and female voters (2 points.)
Meanwhile, Trump has continued to make inroads with minority communities that have previously been difficult for Republicans to appeal to. The former President now has the support of 20% of black men, the Wall Street Journal analysis found, and only trails Harris by one point among Latino men, 48% to 47%.
The figures could offer a glimpse into why Biden has begun joining Harris on the trial, with the president and vice president campaigning together for the first time over Labor Day weekend. Biden has also seen some positive momentum when it comes to his approval rating, which one USA Today/Suffolk poll showed has jumped 13 points in just a few months.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden arrive at a campaign event at the IBEW Local Union #5 union hall in Pittsburgh, on Labor Day, Monday, Sept. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin) (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
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If Harris fails to match Biden’s standing among some minority demographics, the Wall Street Journal analysis suggests she may look to pick off the support of white voters, a group with whom Trump has traditionally performed well. But the analysis found Harris outperforming Biden’s 2020 marks among white voters with and without college degrees in seven critical swing states.
“Harris is overperforming Biden with college-educated elites and suburban women,” Epstein said. “This suggests not just that Trump is likely ahead by a small margin, as Nate Silver has pointed out, but it also suggests longer-term realignment with the Democratic Party becoming a party of elites, and the Republican Party becoming a populist working-class party.”
However, picking off enough white voters could put Harris over the top in a close race.
Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks at a campaign rally in Savannah, Georgia, August 29, 2024. Reuters/Elizabeth Frantz (Reuters)
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“A small gain among white voters can offset a bigger loss among those from minority groups, because white voters account for 70% or more of those who participate in elections,” the analysis notes.
The Harris campaign did not respond to a Fox News Digital request for comment.
